The honest answer to "how long will 1 million last?" is a range, not a number. It depends on three things: how much you spend, how much income you get from elsewhere, and how the markets treat you in the first years. The first two you control. The third you can only plan for.
Here is what 1 million does for someone who retires today at 65, run through Retirement Lab's engine 10,000 times for every combination of savings, spending and pension below.
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How long will your savings last?
You retire today at 65. Pick your savings, your pension or Social Security, and slide your monthly spending.
Savings at 65
Pension / Social Security per month
Money lasts to 90
67%
of 10,000 futures
If it runs out, typically at
age 85
half of the failed futures ran out earlier, half later
Typical amount left at 90
300,000
in today's money (median future)
Chance the money has run out by...
Taken from savings: about 52,500 a year before tax, a 5.3% withdrawal rate.
Free, no account needed. Change your age, add one-time expenses or try another market outlook there.
Retirement Lab engine, 10,000 simulated futures per setting. 60% stocks / 40% bonds, Balanced outlook (stocks 8%, bonds 4.5% a year, inflation 2%), spending in today's money after a 20% tax, rising with inflation, pension rising with inflation and taxed at 20%. Plan runs to age 90. Results, not advice.
The simple math first
If your savings earned nothing, the answer would be easy: divide by what you take out.
| Taken out per year | 1 million lasts |
|---|---|
| 40,000 | 25 years |
| 50,000 | 20 years |
| 60,000 | about 17 years |
| 80,000 | 12.5 years |
Real life adds two forces that pull in opposite directions. Investment returns make the money last longer. Inflation makes it run out faster, because the same lifestyle costs more every year. And the order of returns matters: a crash in your first years hurts far more than the same crash at 80. That is sequence-of-returns risk, and it is why a fixed "years" number is misleading.
What the simulations say
Same retiree, 65, 1 million in 60% stocks and 40% bonds, no pension, spending a fixed amount that rises with inflation. The chance the money lasts to 90:
| Spending per month (after tax) | Taken from savings per year | Lasts to 90 |
|---|---|---|
| 2,500 | 37,500 | 94% |
| 3,000 | 45,000 | 84% |
| 3,500 | 52,500 | 67% |
| 4,000 | 60,000 | 48% |
| 5,000 | 75,000 | 17% |
Two things stand out. The drop is steep: going from 3,000 to 4,000 a month takes you from a plan that usually works to a coin flip. And "spending" here is what you get to spend after tax. At a 20% tax rate, spending 3,000 a month means taking 45,000 a year out of savings, a 4.5% withdrawal rate. If you think in withdrawal rates, the 4% rule calculator lets you test that directly.
A pension changes everything
The withdrawal only has to cover what other income does not. Add 2,000 a month of pension or Social Security (before tax) and the same 1 million goes much further:
| Spending per month (after tax) | No pension | With 2,000 a month pension |
|---|---|---|
| 3,000 | 84% | 100% |
| 4,000 | 48% | 95% |
| 5,000 | 17% | 71% |
| 6,000 | 5% | 34% |
That is why two people with the same savings can get opposite answers. Before you ask whether 1 million is enough, find out what your pension or Social Security will pay and when it starts.
When it fails, it usually fails late
An 84% success rate does not mean a 16% chance of being broke at 70. Spending 3,000 a month with no pension, fewer than 1% of the simulated futures had run out by 80. In the ones that failed, the typical age the money ran out was 86. That gives you years of warning: if the first decade goes badly, you can see it coming and spend a little less.
At 4,000 a month the picture is different. About 9% of futures had run out by 80, and almost a third by 85. That is a plan that needs a change, not just a watchful eye.
The market outlook matters too
All of the numbers above use Retirement Lab's Balanced outlook: stocks 8% and bonds 4.5% a year before inflation, below the US average since 1928. If you want an extra safety margin, run the plan with the Cautious outlook (stocks 6%, bonds 3%). For 1 million and no pension, 3,000 a month then lasts to 90 in about 62% of futures, and 4,000 in about 23%.
How to make 1 million last longer
- Spend a bit less in the first years. The early years carry the most risk.
- Delay the pension or Social Security if a later start pays more, and use savings as a bridge.
- Be willing to adjust. A plan that cuts spending slightly after bad years needs a smaller cushion. Guardrail rules do this with set triggers (a Pro strategy in the simulator).
- Retire a little later if you can. Each extra year of work helps most when it comes early.
What to aim for
A plan that lasts in every simulated future is usually a plan that spends too little. A sensible target for most plans sits somewhere between 80% and 95%, with a check-up every year or two. What is a good success rate? shows what each extra point costs in monthly spending.
Frequently Asked Questions
- How long will 1 million last if I spend 40,000 a year?
- If 40,000 is what you spend after tax and you have no pension, you take about 50,000 a year from savings at a 20% tax rate. In Retirement Lab's engine (60/40 portfolio, Balanced outlook), that lasted from 65 to 90 in about 48% of 10,000 simulated futures. With 2,000 a month of pension or Social Security on top, the same spending lasted in about 95%.
- How long does 1 million last with no investment growth?
- Divide by what you take out each year. At 50,000 a year, 1 million lasts 20 years; at 40,000, 25 years. Inflation shortens that if your spending rises with prices, and investment returns lengthen it, which is why a simulation gives a range instead of one number.
- Is 1 million enough to retire at 65?
- It depends on what you spend and what other income you have. In the simulations here, 1 million with no pension supported about 2,500 a month after tax with a 94% chance of lasting to 90. With a 2,000 a month pension, it supported about 4,000 a month with a similar chance.
- What happens in the futures where the money runs out?
- Mostly it runs out late. Spending 3,000 a month from 1 million with no pension, the money lasted to 90 in 84% of futures; in the ones that failed, the typical age it ran out was 86, and fewer than 1% had run out by 80.
Check how long your savings last
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