How much you need to retire comes down to four things: what you spend each month, what other income you will have, when you stop working, and how sure you want to be. Change any of them and the number moves by hundreds of thousands.
Instead of one magic number, here is the savings you need on the day you retire for every combination, each found by running Retirement Lab's engine on 10,000 simulated futures until the plan reached the target.
Try it
How much do you need to retire?
Pick when you retire, what you want to spend each month and any pension or Social Security. See the savings you need on the day you retire.
Retire at
Pension / Social Security from 67, per month
Chance the money lasts to 90
Savings needed at 65
1,480,000
lasts 25 years in 90% of 10,000 futures
Rule of thumb (25x a year's withdrawal)
1,500,000
above the simulated number by 20,000
Savings needed for each target
80%
1,290,000
85%
1,370,000
90%
1,480,000
95%
1,660,000
Free, no account needed. Not retiring yet? Enter your age today and your monthly saving there. The link starts the pension at retirement; move it to 67 under Income in Advanced mode.
Retirement Lab engine, 10,000 simulated futures per setting; savings found to the nearest 10,000. Retired today, plan to age 90, 60% stocks / 40% bonds, Balanced outlook (stocks 8%, bonds 4.5% a year, inflation 2%). Spending in today's money after a 20% tax, rising with inflation; pension or Social Security from 67, before tax, rising with inflation. Results, not advice.
The quick answer
Retiring at 65 with no pension, a 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio and a 90% chance of the money lasting to 90, you need about 370,000 for every 1,000 a month you want to spend after tax. Spending is in today's money and rises with inflation; the simulations assume a 20% tax on what you take out.
| Spending per month (after tax) | Retire at 65 | Retire at 60 | Retire at 55 | 25x rule |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,000 | 740,000 | 840,000 | 920,000 | 750,000 |
| 3,000 | 1,110,000 | 1,260,000 | 1,380,000 | 1,125,000 |
| 4,000 | 1,480,000 | 1,680,000 | 1,840,000 | 1,500,000 |
| 5,000 | 1,850,000 | 2,090,000 | 2,300,000 | 1,875,000 |
| 6,000 | 2,210,000 | 2,510,000 | 2,760,000 | 2,250,000 |
No pension or Social Security, 90% chance of lasting to 90.
Is the 25x rule right?
The classic rule says you need 25 times what you take out of savings each year, which is the 4% rule turned around. Spending 4,000 a month after a 20% tax means taking out 60,000 a year, so 1.5 million.
For a 25-year retirement starting at 65, the rule and the simulations agree almost exactly. For earlier retirement, the rule falls short, because it was built for 30 years at most:
- Retire at 60: the simulations needed about 12% more than the rule.
- Retire at 55: about 23% more. A 55-year-old spending 4,000 a month needs about 1.84 million, not 1.5.
If you plan to stop working early, use 28 to 31 times instead of 25, or better, run your own numbers.
A pension changes the number more than anything
Your savings only have to cover what other income does not. Every 1,000 a month of pension or Social Security from 67 (before tax, rising with inflation) cut the savings needed by roughly 270,000 for someone retiring at 65:
| Pension or Social Security from 67, per month | Retire at 65 | Retire at 55 |
|---|---|---|
| None | 1,480,000 | 1,840,000 |
| 1,000 | 1,210,000 | 1,630,000 |
| 2,000 | 940,000 | 1,410,000 |
| 3,000 | 670,000 | 1,190,000 |
Spending 4,000 a month, 90% chance of lasting to 90.
The effect is smaller for early retirement. Retiring at 55, savings pay for everything for twelve years before the pension starts, the bridge that makes retiring at 55 hard. Find out what your pension or Social Security will pay, and from when, before you settle on a number.
How sure do you want to be?
The last few points of certainty are the most expensive. Retiring at 65 and spending 4,000 a month with no pension:
| Chance the money lasts to 90 | Savings needed |
|---|---|
| 80% | 1,290,000 |
| 85% | 1,370,000 |
| 90% | 1,480,000 |
| 95% | 1,660,000 |
Going from 90% to 95% costs about 180,000 more. A plan that fails in a few futures usually fails late and with warning, so you can adjust along the way. What is a good success rate? looks at where to aim.
Ways to need less
- Spend a little less. Every 500 a month less at 65 lowers the number by about 185,000.
- Work a few more years. Retiring at 60 instead of 55, spending 4,000 a month with no pension, cut the number from 1.84 to 1.68 million, before counting five more years of saving.
- Be flexible. A plan that cuts spending after bad years can start with less in the bank. Guardrails vs the 4% rule shows how much (guardrails are a Pro strategy in the simulator).
- Check the market outlook you assume. These numbers use the Balanced outlook (stocks 8%, bonds 4.5% a year). A more cautious outlook raises them.
What the numbers leave out
The lab assumes you are retiring today with a fixed amount of savings. If you are still working, what matters is what you will have when you stop, and that depends on how much you save until then: when can I retire? works that out from what you save each month. It also leaves out one-time costs such as a new roof or helping children, which you can add in the simulator. To see how long a specific amount lasts instead, try how long will 1 million last?
Frequently Asked Questions
- How much do I need to retire at 65?
- With no pension, about 370,000 for every 1,000 a month you want to spend after tax, for a 90% chance the money lasts to 90 (60/40 portfolio, Balanced outlook). Spending 4,000 a month needs about 1.48 million. A pension or Social Security from 67 lowers that a lot: with 2,000 a month of pension, the same spending needs about 940,000.
- Is the 25x rule right?
- For a 25-year retirement it is close. Multiplying what you take out of savings each year by 25 (the 4% rule) gave almost the same number as the simulations for someone retiring at 65. For earlier retirement it falls short: at 55 the simulations needed about 23% more for the same 90% chance, because the money has to last 35 years.
- How much do I need to retire at 55?
- More than the rule of thumb suggests. With no pension, about 460,000 for every 1,000 a month of spending after tax, for a 90% chance of lasting to 90. Spending 4,000 a month needs about 1.84 million; with 2,000 a month of pension from 67 it needs about 1.41 million.
- Does a higher success target cost much?
- The last few points are the most expensive. Retiring at 65 and spending 4,000 a month with no pension, an 80% chance needed about 1.29 million, 90% about 1.48 million and 95% about 1.66 million. Going from 90% to 95% costs about 12% more savings.
Find your own number
An example plan is filled in - change anything, then open it in the free simulator.
Opens the free simulator with these numbers filled in - check them and run it. Nothing is stored unless you create an account and save.