"When can I retire?" is really two questions: when will my savings be enough, and how sure do I want to be. The answer moves with what you save, what you plan to spend and what pension you will get, and it moves fast. For most people a few years either way change the odds from a coin flip to a comfortable plan.
Enter where you are today below. Each point on the chart is Retirement Lab's engine running your plan through 10,000 simulated futures for that retirement age.
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When can you retire?
Enter where you are today and what you want to spend in retirement. The chart shows your chance of the money lasting to 90 for every retirement age; click it to look at any age.
Your age today
Savings today
Saving per month
Spending per month in retirement
Pension / Social Security from 67
Chance you want the money to last
Earliest age you can retire
age 67
first age with a 90% chance or more
Retiring at 67
90%
chance the money lasts to 90
Retiring at 68 instead
+2 pts
92% chance
Click the chart to look at another retirement age.
Free, no account needed. Enter your exact numbers there. The link starts the pension when you retire; set it to 67 under Income in Advanced mode.
Retirement Lab engine, 10,000 simulated futures per point. Saving continues each month until you retire, rising 1.5% a year with your pay. Plan to age 90, 60% stocks / 40% bonds, Balanced outlook (stocks 8%, bonds 4.5% a year, inflation 2%). Spending in today's money after a 20% tax, rising with inflation; pension or Social Security from 67 (or from when you retire, if later), before tax, rising with inflation. Results, not advice.
An example: 45, with 300,000 saved
Take someone who is 45, has 300,000 saved, puts away 1,000 a month and wants to spend 4,000 a month in retirement, with 2,000 a month of pension or Social Security from 67. Their chance of the money lasting to 90, by retirement age:
| Retire at | Chance the money lasts to 90 |
|---|---|
| 58 | 28% |
| 60 | 44% |
| 62 | 60% |
| 65 | 81% |
| 67 | 90% |
| 70 | 95% |
Two things stand out. Between 58 and 65 every extra year of work adds 6 to 8 points. And the last points are slow: 90% comes at 67, 95% not until 70. Which target to aim for is a choice, not a fact; what is a good success rate? looks at the trade-off.
Why one more year counts three times
Working one more year does three things at once:
- One more year of saving goes into the pot.
- One more year of growth on everything already saved.
- One less year of withdrawals the savings have to pay for.
That is why the curve is so steep in the middle. It also explains why the years just before your pension starts are the expensive ones: until then, savings pay for everything.
What moves your date the most
Same person, 45 with 300,000 saved, earliest age for a 90% chance:
| Change | Earliest retirement age |
|---|---|
| As above (saving 1,000, spending 4,000, pension 2,000 from 67) | 67 |
| Save 2,000 a month | 64 |
| Save 3,000 a month | 61 |
| Spend 3,000 a month in retirement | 63 |
| Spend 5,000 a month in retirement | after 70 |
| No pension or Social Security | after 70 |
| 600,000 saved today | 62 |
| 1 million saved today | 56 |
Saving more is the strongest lever you control: every extra 1,000 a month brought retirement about three years closer. Spending is next: planning to live on 3,000 instead of 4,000 a month gained four years. And your pension matters most of all. Find out what it will pay and from when before you pick a date.
Starting later or earlier
The same plan (saving 1,000 a month, spending 4,000, pension 2,000 from 67) for people at different stages:
| Age today | Savings today | Earliest age for 90% |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | 150,000 | 67 |
| 40 | 150,000 | 69 |
| 45 | 300,000 | 67 |
| 50 | 600,000 | 64 |
| 55 | 1,000,000 | 61 |
Starting early helps because savings have longer to grow, but the savings you already have count for more. Someone who is 50 with 600,000 can stop earlier than a 35-year-old with 150,000, even though the younger person has fifteen more years of saving ahead.
If you already know your target age, the reverse question is how much you need by then: how much do I need to retire? For a closer look at stopping at 55, see can I retire at 55?
What the lab leaves out
- Your exact numbers. The lab uses a few set values for each input. The simulator takes any amount.
- Pay rises and career breaks. Saving here rises 1.5% a year with your pay and never stops until you retire.
- One-time costs such as paying off a mortgage, a new car or helping children. Add them in the simulator.
- Flexible spending. A plan that cuts spending after bad years can retire earlier; see guardrails vs the 4% rule (guardrails are a Pro strategy in the simulator).
Frequently Asked Questions
- When can I retire?
- When your savings, plus any pension or Social Security, can pay for your spending until the end of your plan with a chance you are comfortable with. For example, a 45-year-old with 300,000 saved, saving 1,000 a month and planning to spend 4,000 a month with a 2,000 pension from 67, reached a 90% chance of the money lasting to 90 by retiring at 67, and 80% at 65, in Retirement Lab's simulations.
- How much earlier can I retire if I save more?
- In the example above, each extra 1,000 a month of saving brought the earliest retirement age forward by about three years: 67 when saving 1,000 a month, 64 at 2,000 and 61 at 3,000, for the same 90% chance.
- Why does working one more year help so much?
- One more year adds a year of saving, a year of investment growth and removes a year of withdrawals, all at once. Around the early 60s each extra year added 7 to 8 points to the chance of the money lasting. Close to the target the effect shrinks: going from 90% to 95% took three more years.
- Can I retire before my pension or Social Security starts?
- Yes, if your savings can bridge the gap. Until the pension starts, savings pay for everything, so each year of bridge costs a full year of spending. In the example, with no pension at all, no retirement age up to 70 reached a 90% chance; with 2,000 a month from 67, age 67 did.
Find your retirement age
An example plan is filled in - change anything, then open it in the free simulator.
Opens the free simulator with these numbers filled in - check them and run it. Nothing is stored unless you create an account and save.